Probability Distributions For Decision Makers
Probability distributions are more than mathematical constructs learned in statistics classes. They help make the predictions that decisions are built on …
From Analytics to Decisions
…the foundation of the work I do today: helping leaders make the future visible …
The Two Layers of Uncertainty: Why Models Get a Bad Rap
We ask models to deliver certainty, when all they can ever deliver is a structured expression of uncertainty …
Intuition IS Data
You can’t predict the future with certainty, but you can build a rigorous, defensible process for making the tough calls that shape it …
Case Study: Sales Funnel Valuation
Private Equity needed to engage management in a structured conversation about assumptions, risk, and upside …
The Scarce Resource in Decision-Making
Forecasting is the scarce resource in decision-making — and knowing when to spend it is the first step toward better choices …
Case Study: Due Diligence
A Venture Capital firm needed a shared, transparent probability of success …
Case Study: SiriusCyb, Inc
A startup had to make a major decision when relevant information was scarce to non-existent …
Beyond the Bell Curve
How to interpret probability distributions and make better strategic decisions under risk …
