I love revenue projections from venture firms. It’s great to be reminded that optimism is still alive in what too often feels like a pessimistic, cynical world.
I just wish I weren’t so often brought back to earth by the realization that those impressive numbers don’t mean much without a clear explanation of where they came from — or how they’ll happen.
And it’s not just about whether the numbers are believable. What really matters is what those numbers — and the process behind them — say about the organization presenting them.
In venture, what sets companies apart isn’t just how much revenue they generate. It’s whether they can explain how it happens — and whether they can predict what’s coming next.
That kind of insight benefits everyone involved, from operators to investors. Because when a team can forecast revenue with confidence, it shows they understand the system that creates it.
And when you understand that system, everything else gets easier: raising capital, setting valuation, building the right product, even choosing the right time to exit.
The ability to predict revenue isn’t just a financial exercise. It’s a sign of operational maturity. It reflects how well a team understands its go-to-market motion, buyer behavior, sales process, and churn dynamics.
When a company can explain not just what might happen, but why, they’re not guessing — they’re managing. That’s the difference between hoping for growth and building a system that produces it.
For anyone evaluating a company — inside or out — that level of clarity is the difference between noise and signal.
Predictability isn’t just a metric. It’s a competency.
It means you understand what’s going on under the hood. It means you can explain it to others. And it means you’re building something that’s not just working — it’s worth believing in.
Whether you’re running the company or writing the check, the real question isn’t “what’s the forecast?” It’s: “do we understand the system well enough to trust it”?